At the end of every year, I like to make a list of big predictions for the financial markets in the upcoming year.
Last year, I achieved a nine out of 10 success rate, including correctly calling for a greater than 20% rally in the S&P 500 and a greater than 30% rally in the Nasdaq.
Not too shabby.
But this year, I’m aiming to go 10 for 10.
Yesterday, I posted my first four big predictions for 2024. These included a forecast for the market to rise at least 15%, growth stocks to continue dominating, AI stocks to remain hot, and the stock market rally to increasingly broaden out, moving away from huge tech stocks and toward smaller ones.
Today, I’m going to share three more of my big predictions for the stock market in 2024.
Let’s check them out:
- Bitcoin will hit $100,000. Cryptocurrencies are, frankly, quite predictable. Every four years, there is a Bitcoin halving event where the supply of new Bitcoin released per transaction is cut in half. Between these halving events, cryptocurrencies tend to struggle. However, around the time of these events, they typically experience a surge. Specifically, cryptocurrencies start to climb approximately 12 months before a halving and continue to rise until 12 months after the event. The fourth Bitcoin Halving is scheduled for April 2024. In line with previous patterns, cryptocurrencies began their ascent in early 2023, roughly 12 months prior to the fourth halving. This pattern seems to be persisting. Consequently, it appears increasingly likely that cryptocurrencies will continue to surge into the halving and for 12 months following it. This suggests that the crypto markets will maintain their momentum until at least early 2025. Our fundamental analysis indicates that, during this rally, Bitcoin will reach $100,000. We are very optimistic about cryptocurrencies and crypto stocks for 2024. Moreover, for what it’s worth, we also accurately predicted the bottom in BTC in late 2022 and the significant rally in 2023.
- The housing market is poised for a boom. Over the past two years, it has struggled due to fluctuating mortgage rates, which cycled from a 20-year low of 2% in 2021 to a 20-year high of 8% in 2023. However, this major headwind is now reversing. Mortgage rates have fallen sharply in the past two months, from 8% to 6.5%, as the Federal Reserve signaled an end to rate hikes and readiness to begin cutting rates. The market anticipates that the Fed will start reducing rates in March 2024 and continue into 2025.
- Historically, mortgage rates have plummeted each time the Fed has cut rates. Consequently, we can expect a significant drop in mortgage rates in 2024. These lower mortgage rates are likely to reinvigorate homebuying demand that has been on the sidelines and unlock existing housing supply. Next year, the housing market is projected to experience a significant rise in both demand and supply. Typically, when supply and demand in a market both increase substantially, the market experiences a boom. Therefore, we foresee a housing market boom in 2024.
- The solar industry is going to re-heat in a major way. Alongside the housing market, it was hit hard by rapidly rising interest rates in 2023. Most solar projects are financed, and the high rates made them increasingly unaffordable that year. Despite this, there remains an enormous demand for solar energy, coupled with substantial legislative momentum supporting the build-out of solar infrastructure. Therefore, once rates decrease in 2024 and affordability improves, we are likely to witness a surge of backlogged demand re-entering the solar market. We anticipate a substantial rebound in the solar energy industry next year.
Those are three more of my big market predictions for 2024.
Given my predictions so far, it’s clear that I’m bullish on stocks for 2024. However, I believe that specific sectors—such as cryptocurrency, housing, and solar—will yield the highest returns.
These areas will be the focus of my investment strategy next year.
Tomorrow, I will share my final three major predictions for the stock market in 2024. Stay tuned.
In the meantime, click here if you want to access my latest and greatest stock picks.
On the date of publication, Luke Lango did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article.