The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is calculated by dividing a company’s stock price per share by its earnings per share (EPS), giving investors an idea of whether a stock is under- or overvalued. A high P/E ratio may suggest that investors are expecting higher earnings growth in the future compared to companies with a lower P/E. The P/E ratio indicates the dollar amount an investor can expect to invest in a company so that they may receive one dollar of that company’s earnings. While the P/E ratio is a useful stock valuation measure, it can be misleading to investors.
Key Takeaways
- The P/E ratio indicates to investors whether a company’s stock is realistically valued.
- A high P/E ratio may suggest that investors are expecting higher earnings in the future.
- The P/E ratio can be misleading because it is either based on past data or projected future data (neither of which are reliable) or possibly manipulated accounting data.
The Price-To-Earnings Ratio Can Mislead Investors
One reason why the P/E ratio is considered misleading for investors is that it is based on past data (as is the case with trailing P/E) and does not guarantee that earnings will remain the same. Similarly, if the P/E ratio is based on projected earnings (for example, with a forward P/E), there is no guarantee that estimates will be accurate. Additionally, accounting techniques can control (or manipulate) financial reports.
The different ways of accounting mean that EPS can be skewed depending on the accounting methods. Skewed EPS data make it difficult for investors to accurately value a single company or compare various companies since it is impossible to know if they are comparing similar figures.
There’s More Than One Way to Calculate EPS
Another problem is that there is more than one way to calculate EPS. In the P/E ratio calculation, the stock price per share is set by the market. The EPS value, however, varies depending on the earnings data used. For example, whether the data is from the past 12 months or estimates for the coming year, analysts can use earnings estimates to determine the relative value of a company at a future level of earnings—a value known as the forward P/E.
Comparing one company’s P/E ratio based on trailing earnings to another’s forward earnings creates an apples-to-oranges comparison that can be misleading to investors. For these reasons, investors would be wise to use more than the P/E ratio when evaluating a company or comparing various companies.
The P/E ratio is calculated using earnings per share, but EPS can be skewed depending on the accounting methods. Skewed EPS data makes it impossible to compare one company with another.
A primary limitation of using P/E ratios becomes evident when investors compare the P/E ratios of different companies. Valuations and business models may vary wildly across sectors, and it is best to use P/E as a comparative tool for stocks within the same sector rather than multiple sectors.
An Example of a P/E Ratio Comparison Between Stocks
A quick look at P/E ratios for Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) illustrates the dangers of using only the P/E ratio to evaluate a company. In mid-December, 2018, Apple traded at $165.48 with a P/E ratio (TTM) of 13.89. On the same day, Amazon’s stock price was $1,591.91 with a P/E ratio of 89.19. One of the reasons Amazon’s P/E is so much higher than Apple’s is that its efforts to expand aggressively on a wide scale have helped keep earnings somewhat suppressed and the P/E ratio high.
The P/E ratio should be used with a variety of other analysis tools to analyze a stock.
If these two stocks were compared based on P/E alone, it would be impossible to make a reasonable evaluation. A low P/E ratio does not automatically mean a stock is undervalued. Similarly, a high P/E ratio does not necessarily mean a company is overvalued.